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procedure,despite the fact that music science, especially the
systematic branch, has taken steps in the direction of a more
empirical approach (see Fuller, 1974) . n Ttes active in musicology give good reasons why they believe, up to this point, that a test of musical talent would be of no value. Two typical arguments are given here as examples.
1. Seashore's Test measures only basic functions of the human
perception system, such as pitch, loudness, rhythm, timber,
and tonal memory. Although these capacities are cortisone qua non in musical talent, there are too many additional
dimensions that have to be taken into account to justify the
name "Musical Talent Test." A particular problem is the complexity of music as a dynamic system with ever-changing parameters. If the "Seashore" capacities only are considered,
neither music nor musical talent are being discussed.
2. Even if measurement of musical ability were possible, what would such a test be have good for? this test would have nothing to do with the chances of a musician in his or her career. sociopsychological variables are a major determinant
of these chances. It might well be better to test whether amusician has management qualities; this might be a better
indicator of later success.
Nevertheless, it Might be possible to find theoretical and empirical evidence to solve the complexity problem, and to make clear what such a test could be good for.
Thousands of students in Germany dream of a professional
career in Music. On the assumption that at least 51% of the total variance of all the parameters responsible for later success as a professional is attributable to musical talent, amusical talent test could indicate the existence of aprecondition that everybody who wants to have any chance
at all in music would have to fulfill. A career e as a pop singer might be much more influenced by other (sociopsychological) variables, and for this reason the present approach will be limited to the classical branch.
Students must be aware that only an estimated 5-10% of each
year's output have a chance of getting a job, as there are not
enough jobs as Musicians in Germany (e.g., jobs in an orchestra,as a singer, a pianists, or a teacher). Far from being too low, this
estirnate may even be too high. The classical branch is a very good
exaMple of the effects of multicultural and international competition. Musicians from United States, Japan, Korea, Austria, Australia