In fact, commodity prices are the key to understanding trade trends over the last few decades. When they were high, they drove increased trade – to the point that the share of trade to GDP rose – fueling hype about the inevitable progress of globalization. But in 2012, commodity prices began to fall, soon bringing trade down with them.
By 2012-2013, the value of the raw materials needed for a car increased to about $2,000, about 10% of the cost of the same car (prices of cars had increased by much less). Industrial countries thus had to export double, namely ten cars for the same amount of imports of raw materials.