Deloitte MarketPoint’s production outlook
To develop Deloitte MarketPoint’s production outlook, we assume OPEC, with the exception of Iran, will continue to produce at current levels through 2020. We assume Iran will produce an incremental 500 thousand b/d in 2016 and grow an additional 300 thousand b/d in 2017, putting Iran roughly back at pre-sanction production levels by the end of 2017.
For non-OPEC producers, we build up a detailed analysis of production: For US tight oil and onshore, we expect production declines for 2016 while the US Gulf of Mexico will likely have some offsetting production growth. As for other non-OPEC countries’ 2016 production, we expect an increase in Canada, Europe, Brazil, and the FSU as a result of the new projects already under development. Some of this new production could be offset by higher decline rates due to reduced maintenance as a result of budget cuts. The net effect for 2016 non-OPEC production is an overall decline of 0.6 million b/d to 44.5 million b/d (crude and lease condensate).