. The decision maker is likely to favor the programs with reliable rather than largely speculative estimates of antic¬
Pated accomplishments per dollar. Second, if a new program requires a
Substantial initial commitment of funds but the year-to-year increment of
Fresh funds for an agency may never be that large, the tendency will be
to expand existing programs rather than to innovate. Third, additional
expenditure on a project under way (e.g., a dam or building) whose costs
Are now seen as likely to exceed its benefits may be preferred to a pro¬
Posed new project with a very favorable benefit-cost ratio. The decisional
Question is whether die additional expenditure for completion (not the
total project costs) will be less than total project benefits, to which the
answer is usually affirmative. The already "sunk costs" reinforce the case,
since they will usually be a total loss if the project is abandoned.