Despite the current global crude glut, numerous new projects are expected to come online in non-OPEC countries over the next few years. These projects were commissioned when oil was $100+/bbl, and are now too far along to be stopped. To estimate production volumes from these projects, we leveraged information from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2014 Medium-Term Oil Market Report4 and supplemented it with other publically announced data.5 We then validated project online dates using publicly available company data, press releases, and
industry articles. Based on this analysis, which is summarized in Figure 2, we identified 90 projects still expected to come online resulting in nearly 6.4 million b/d of new crude production over the next five years. Three regions—the former Soviet Union (FSU), Europe, and Brazil—are expected to contribute over 65 percent of the growth, with the FSU leading the pack with almost 1.6 million b/d expected to come online through 2020. Although Canadian oil sands are a relatively high-cost source, projects already under construction will add an estimated 0.8 million b/d through 2020 with nearly 0.3 million b/d coming online in 2016.