The candidates differ greatly on taxes and what spending categories deserve priority. But neither candidate would drastically alter the future level of spending relative to current law, and the deficit and debt would continue to increase.
If Trump’s proposals were enacted, annual revenues would climb only $120 billion between now and 2026, roughly one-seventh as much as under current-law projections. Spending would rise at about the same pace as current law, but because of Trump’s considerable tax cuts, this new spending would be more than 10 times larger than new revenue.
If Clinton’s proposals were enacted, annual revenue and spending would rise somewhat faster than under current law. Largely because of tax increases on high earners, revenue under Clinton’s plan would rise $175 billion over the $850 billion growth scheduled under current law. Meanwhile, spending—because of her plans to spend more on education, paid family leave, and other priorities—would rise an additional $160 billion over the $1.28 trillion under current law. The real gap between spending and revenue would improve only slightly at over $400 billion. None of this accounts for Clinton’s promise to increase Social Security benefits for widows and caregivers or how she would pay for them.