Many views have been expressed about the eventual shape of the oil price recovery: Will markets follow a short “V-shape” recovery or will a more extended period of soft prices create a “U-shape” price curve? The period 2008–2009 saw a relatively dramatic price and demand decline, which fell by 2.3 percent over the two-year period. In response to the demand decline, OPEC reacted with
production cuts which supported 2010’s rapid oil price rise, creating the V-shape recovery. Today’s market decline is associated more with large increases in supply rather than merely a decline in demand. In marked contrast, several OPEC members have seemingly become unwilling to cut production and lose market share as higher cost producers are largely responsible for the production growth.19 Several analysts have argued that since the decline was caused by excess supply, the current oil price curve will follow a U-shape recovery, meaning we will see a longer period of low oil prices than in the previous correction and then a return to much higher prices again.
Considering today’s price environment with many sources of crude oil at or near their “cash cost” or variable lifting cost level, one could argue that a sustained period of low prices can’t continue for long unless future demand becomes materially weaker than we expect. The current oil futures market appears to represent this view as February 29, 2016, settlements (Figure 10, page 14) show prices in contango, which then flatten to a steady level of $50/bbl by 2020 and remain there for several more years. Conversely, this paper highlights that by 2018 the supply-demand balance will tighten more, driving our Reference Case view that prices will eventually rise more quickly.